FC Bayern München vs Arsenal: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich · updated 2026-10-09
FC Bayern München host Arsenal in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Allianz Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FC Bayern München favourites at 58%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Bayern München 1.91, Arsenal 1.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Michael Olise as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 89, defensive 53).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Shots: 5.05 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Accurate crosses: 2.08 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
Arsenal concede only 0.8 goals a match this season (0.92 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a inside forward like Michael Olise.
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| FC Bayern München | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 3.5 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 0.69 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 21.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 8.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 70.5 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 9.5 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 7.25 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; FC Bayern München in its domestic league; Arsenal in its domestic league.
Players to watch
FC Bayern München
- Michael Olise midfielder · rating 8.40 · 4 apps
- Joshua Kimmich midfielder · rating 8.02 · 4 apps
- Harry Kane forward · rating 7.76 · 4 apps
Arsenal
- Bukayo Saka midfielder · rating 7.40 · 5 apps
- Martin Ødegaard midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Declan Rice midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
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- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.