FC Groningen vs Willem II Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Eredivisie · Friday 27 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium, Groningen · updated 2026-11-14
FC Groningen welcome Willem II to Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium in Groningen in Eredivisie Gameweek 14 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
FC Groningen have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Willem II have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 3.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Groningen are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 16% and Willem II at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.89, Willem II 1.32.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Groningen: form and key numbers
In style FC Groningen play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.9).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 92% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Willem II: form and key numbers
In style Willem II are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 40.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.55.
FC Groningen vs Willem II: season averages side by side
| FC Groningen | Per match this season | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 3.3 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 2.08 | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 5.8 | On target | 2.8 |
| 49.2 | Possession % | 40.6 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 92% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.55 |
Players to watch
FC Groningen
- Thom van Bergen AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 35 · Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls (top 8% of his position)
- Jacob Ondrejka LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 34 · Draws fouls, Big-chance creator (top 45% of his position)
Willem II
- Nathan Tjoe-A-On LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 33 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 13% of his position)
- Finn Stam CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 26 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 39% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David van der Werff
David van der Werff, 22 · FC Groningen · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 37
David van der Werff, 22, plays as a winger for FC Groningen in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 37
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 34
- LW · Winger Competent, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.89 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 74% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 70% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.00 / 90 | 60% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 57% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Classic winger Winger
- What David van der Werff is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David van der Werff's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Groningen vs Willem II prediction
FC Groningen should have more of the ball, with Willem II likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FC Groningen go long and direct; Willem II are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 2.89 for FC Groningen and 1.32 for Willem II - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 69%. FC Groningen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Groningen 3-1 Willem II
FC Groningen vs Willem II: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Groningen win, the likeliest result 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 60% by the model, 4.20 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Eredivisie previews
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- FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Twente vs Willem II Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026
FC Groningen vs Willem II: questions and answers
When is FC Groningen vs Willem II?
FC Groningen vs Willem II is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 14.
Where is FC Groningen vs Willem II played?
At Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium, Groningen, FC Groningen's home ground.
Who will win FC Groningen vs Willem II?
FC Groningen are the favourites: FC Groningen 69%, draw 16%, Willem II 14%. Our prediction is FC Groningen 3-1 Willem II.
Who is the player to watch in FC Groningen vs Willem II?
David van der Werff of FC Groningen: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Groningen vs Willem II?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.