Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction and Stats | Süper Lig Gameweek 13
Süper Lig · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul · updated 2026-11-15
Fenerbahçe welcome Erzurumspor FK to Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in İstanbul in Süper Lig Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Fenerbahçe have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 55% of them. At home they average 3.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Erzurumspor FK have played 11 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fenerbahçe are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 17% and Erzurumspor FK at 9%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.38, Erzurumspor FK 0.74.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
In style Fenerbahçe keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.09 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.0).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Erzurumspor FK: form and key numbers
In style Erzurumspor FK are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 43.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK: season averages side by side
| Fenerbahçe | Per match this season | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.6 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 2.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 1.19 | xG conceded | 1.52 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 9.8 |
| 6.6 | On target | 3.0 |
| 55.4 | Possession % | 43.0 |
| 55% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 36% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Fenerbahçe
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Press-resistant, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Oğuz Aydın LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 46 · Press-resistant, High shot volume (top 16% of his position)
Erzurumspor FK
- Mustafa Fettahoğlu LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 39 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 39% of his position)
- Orhan Ovacıklı RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 39 · Crosser, Creator (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi, 32 · Fenerbahçe · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 55
Vedat Muriqi, 32, plays as a centre-forward for Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 55
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 57% | 100% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.79 / 90 | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.70 / 90 | 74% |
| Shots | 4.00 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.7 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Vedat Muriqi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vedat Muriqi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK prediction
Fenerbahçe should have more of the ball, with Erzurumspor FK likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Erzurumspor FK go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.38 for Fenerbahçe and 0.74 for Erzurumspor FK - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 48%. Fenerbahçe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fenerbahçe 3-0 Erzurumspor FK
Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK: what the numbers say
- 1. Fenerbahçe win, the likeliest result 73% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 60% by the model, 3.12 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Süper Lig previews
- Gençlerbirliği vs Gaziantep F.K. Saturday 21 November 2026
- Galatasaray vs Samsunspor Saturday 21 November 2026
- Amed SK vs Rizespor Saturday 21 November 2026
- Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahçe Saturday 21 November 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe Sunday 22 November 2026
- Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Sunday 22 November 2026
- Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor Sunday 22 November 2026
- Trabzonspor vs Eyüpspor Sunday 22 November 2026
Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK: questions and answers
When is Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 13.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK played?
At Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, İstanbul, Fenerbahçe's home ground.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
Fenerbahçe are the favourites: Fenerbahçe 73%, draw 17%, Erzurumspor FK 9%. Our prediction is Fenerbahçe 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Who is the player to watch in Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
Vedat Muriqi of Fenerbahçe: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 55 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.