Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze · updated 2026-10-15
Fiorentina welcome Atalanta to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Fiorentina have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Atalanta have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fiorentina are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 25% and Atalanta at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.67, Atalanta 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.64 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.8).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.87 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: season averages side by side
| Fiorentina | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.64 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.87 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 13.5 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.7 |
| 46.7 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.7 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Fiorentina
- Alieu Njie WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 10% of his position)
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 55 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 8% of his position)
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 9% of his position)
- Nikola Krstović CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 60 · High shot volume, Clinical finisher (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 68
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.81 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.43 / 90 | 93% |
| Fouls won | 2.31 / 90 | 85% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.31 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.12 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
Fiorentina should have more of the ball; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.67 for Fiorentina and 1.41 for Atalanta - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%. Fiorentina have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fiorentina 2-1 Atalanta
Fiorentina vs Atalanta betting tips
- Tip 1: Fiorentina win or draw (double chance) 68% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 3.08 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: questions and answers
When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta played?
At Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze, Fiorentina's home ground.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina are the favourites: Fiorentina 43%, draw 25%, Atalanta 32%. Our prediction is Fiorentina 2-1 Atalanta.
Who is the player to watch in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.