Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Friday 30 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Fiorentina welcome Atalanta to Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze in Serie A action on Friday 30 October 2026.
Fiorentina have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Atalanta have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Fiorentina 40%, the draw 27%, Atalanta 32%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Fiorentina 0 at 1.65, Atalanta at 2.33. The main goals line is 3: over 1.99, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 15.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: season averages side by side
| Fiorentina | Per match | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 1.13 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 15.4 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 49.4 | Pressure share % | 40.3 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 13.6 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Fiorentina 4, Atalanta 6 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta (May 22nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Fiorentina won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | Fiorentina | 1 – 1 | Atalanta |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Atalanta | 2 – 0 | Fiorentina |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Fiorentina | 1 – 0 | Atalanta |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Atalanta | 3 – 2 | Fiorentina |
Players to watch
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 67 · High shot volume, Draws fouls (top 2% of his position)
- Alejandro Jiménez Sánchez FB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Chance creator, Creator (top 6% of his position)
Atalanta
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Creator, Secure passer (top 3% of his position)
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović, 26 · Atalanta · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72
Nikola Krstović, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.43 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.72 / 90 | 85% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 xG/shot | 65% |
| Key passes | 1.21 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Nikola Krstović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nikola Krstović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
Atalanta should have more of the ball; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.79 for Fiorentina and 1.81 for Atalanta - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Fiorentina vs Atalanta betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Fiorentina vs Atalanta: questions and answers
When is Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is on Friday 30 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta played?
At Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze, Fiorentina's home ground.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
It is close: Fiorentina 40%, draw 27%, Atalanta 32%. Our prediction is Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.
Who is the player to watch in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Nikola Krstović of Atalanta: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.