Fluminense vs Cruzeiro Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Friday 27 November 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · updated 2026-11-14
Fluminense welcome Cruzeiro to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Fluminense have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 75% win rate. Cruzeiro have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 17 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fluminense are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 24% and Cruzeiro at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Fluminense 1.85, Cruzeiro 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Fluminense: form and key numbers
In style Fluminense keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.6).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Cruzeiro: form and key numbers
In style Cruzeiro keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro: season averages side by side
| Fluminense | Per match this season | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.39 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 14.7 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 5.6 | On target | 5.4 |
| 59.0 | Possession % | 54.7 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Fluminense
- Igor Rabello CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Blocks shots (top 13% of his position)
- Jefferson Savarino LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Draws fouls, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Kaiki LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Hard to dribble past, Dribbler (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luciano Acosta
Luciano Acosta, 32 · Fluminense · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 63
Luciano Acosta, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Fluminense in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 48
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.05 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 84% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 81% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.94 / 90 | 81% |
| Dispossessed | 0.89 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Luciano Acosta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luciano Acosta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro prediction
Fluminense should have more of the ball; Fluminense like to take players on; Cruzeiro work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.85 for Fluminense and 1.39 for Cruzeiro - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 64%. Fluminense have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Fluminense 2-1 Cruzeiro
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro: what the numbers say
- 1. Fluminense unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro: questions and answers
When is Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 23:00 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Fluminense vs Cruzeiro played?
At Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Fluminense's home ground.
Who will win Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Fluminense are the favourites: Fluminense 48%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 28%. Our prediction is Fluminense 2-1 Cruzeiro.
Who is the player to watch in Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Luciano Acosta of Fluminense: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.