Frosinone vs Lecce Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone · updated 2026-10-15
Frosinone welcome Lecce to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Frosinone have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Lecce have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Frosinone are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 23% and Lecce at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Frosinone 2.00, Lecce 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone are happy without the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 2.25 conceded (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 42.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 10.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 41.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Frosinone vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Frosinone | Per match this season | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 2.25 | xG conceded | 1.99 |
| 16.8 | Shots | 10.2 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.7 |
| 42.7 | Possession % | 41.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 13% of his position)
- Giorgio Cittadini CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 1% of his position)
Lecce
- Danilo Veiga RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Crosser, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Tiago Gabriel CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Duel winner (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23, plays as a winger for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and shots. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.07 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.07 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.22 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 80% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, High shot volume, Chance creator.
- What Giorgi Kvernadze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgi Kvernadze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Frosinone vs Lecce prediction
Frosinone should have more of the ball; Frosinone work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 2.00 for Frosinone and 1.20 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 61%. Frosinone have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Frosinone 2-1 Lecce
Frosinone vs Lecce betting tips
- Tip 1: Frosinone to win 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Frosinone vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Frosinone vs Lecce?
Frosinone vs Lecce is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Frosinone vs Lecce played?
At Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone, Frosinone's home ground.
Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?
Frosinone are the favourites: Frosinone 55%, draw 23%, Lecce 22%. Our prediction is Frosinone 2-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Giorgi Kvernadze of Frosinone: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.