Frosinone vs Lecce Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Friday 30 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Frosinone welcome Lecce to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone in Serie A action on Friday 30 October 2026.
Frosinone have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Lecce have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Frosinone are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and Lecce at 23%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Frosinone -0.5 at 1.68, Lecce at 2.28. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone are happy without the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.45 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.24 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 40.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Frosinone vs Lecce: season averages side by side
| Frosinone | Per match | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.24 |
| 2.45 | xG conceded | 1.64 |
| 2.13 | Goals | 1.13 |
| 18.3 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 6.1 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 47.4 | Pressure share % | 35.3 |
| 19.6 | Tackles | 20.8 |
| 15.6 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Players to watch
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Antonio Raimondo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 62 · Clinical finisher, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 10% of his position)
Lecce
- Tiago Gabriel CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64 · Duel winner, Secure passer (top 8% of his position)
- Danilo Veiga RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 63
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23, plays as a winger for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and shots. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.84 / 90 | 90% |
| Shots | 3.24 / 90 | 87% |
| Key passes | 2.03 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected goals | 0.28 / 90 | 73% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler, High shot volume.
- What Giorgi Kvernadze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgi Kvernadze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Frosinone vs Lecce prediction
Frosinone should have more of the ball; Frosinone work the ball wide and cross; Lecce go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.07 for Frosinone and 1.45 for Lecce - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 67%. Frosinone have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Frosinone 3-1 Lecce
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Frosinone vs Lecce betting tips
- Tip 1: Frosinone win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.53 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Monday 26 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Monday 26 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AS Roma vs Cagliari Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Thursday 29 October 2026
Frosinone vs Lecce: questions and answers
When is Frosinone vs Lecce?
Frosinone vs Lecce is on Friday 30 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Frosinone vs Lecce played?
At Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone, Frosinone's home ground.
Who will win Frosinone vs Lecce?
Frosinone are the favourites: Frosinone 54%, draw 23%, Lecce 23%. Our prediction is Frosinone 3-1 Lecce.
Who is the player to watch in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Giorgi Kvernadze of Frosinone: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
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