Genk vs La Louvière Prediction and Stats | Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12
Belgian Pro League · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 17:15 UTC · Cegeka Arena, Genk · updated 2026-11-13
Genk welcome La Louvière to Cegeka Arena in Genk in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:15 UTC.
Genk have played 11 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 36% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. La Louvière have played 11 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Genk are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and La Louvière at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Genk 2.43, La Louvière 1.09.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Genk: form and key numbers
In style Genk keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 54.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
La Louvière: form and key numbers
In style La Louvière are happy without the ball, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created, 2.17 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 40.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Genk vs La Louvière: season averages side by side
| Genk | Per match this season | La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 1.22 | xG conceded | 2.17 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.7 |
| 54.5 | Possession % | 40.5 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 45% |
| 4.9 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
Genk
- Jeppe Erenbjerg AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 52 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Ayumu Yokoyama LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 50 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 17% of his position)
La Louvière
- Nolan Gillot LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Crosser, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
- Mustapha Isah CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rafiu Durosinmi
Rafiu Durosinmi, 23 · Genk · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66
Rafiu Durosinmi, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Genk in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.13 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 7.95 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.57 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.55 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Rafiu Durosinmi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Rafiu Durosinmi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Genk vs La Louvière prediction
Genk should have more of the ball, with La Louvière likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.43 for Genk and 1.09 for La Louvière - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 61%. Genk have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Genk 3-1 La Louvière
Genk vs La Louvière: what the numbers say
- 1. Genk win, the likeliest result 67% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.52 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 8.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Belgian Pro League previews
- Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo Friday 20 November 2026
- Sporting Charleroi vs Sint-Truiden Saturday 21 November 2026
- Mechelen vs Club Brugge Saturday 21 November 2026
- Zulte-Waregem vs Antwerp Saturday 21 November 2026
- SK Beveren vs Gent Sunday 22 November 2026
- KV Kortrijk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Sunday 22 November 2026
- Anderlecht vs OH Leuven Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lommel SK vs Standard Liège Sunday 22 November 2026
Genk vs La Louvière: questions and answers
When is Genk vs La Louvière?
Genk vs La Louvière is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 17:15 UTC, in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 12.
Where is Genk vs La Louvière played?
At Cegeka Arena, Genk, Genk's home ground.
Who will win Genk vs La Louvière?
Genk are the favourites: Genk 67%, draw 19%, La Louvière 15%. Our prediction is Genk 3-1 La Louvière.
Who is the player to watch in Genk vs La Louvière?
Rafiu Durosinmi of Genk: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Genk vs La Louvière?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.