Sassuolo vs AC Milan: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Sassuolo host AC Milan in the Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make AC Milan narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 27% and Sassuolo at 24%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sassuolo +0.5 at 2.02, AC Milan at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.88, under 2.01, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Sassuolo create more: 1.81 expected goals a match against 1.59 for AC Milan.
- AC Milan give away less, 1.11 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Sassuolo 17.2 (7.0 on target), AC Milan 12.8 (4.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Sassuolo 51.6%, AC Milan 63.2%.
| Sassuolo | Per match | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 17.2 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| 51.6 | Pressure share % | 63.2 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 14.8 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 1, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Sassuolo | 2 – 0 | AC Milan |
| 14 Dec 2025 | AC Milan | 2 – 2 | Sassuolo |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Sassuolo vs AC Milan in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Serie A previews
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- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
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- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.