Genoa vs Juventus Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova · updated 2026-10-14
Genoa welcome Juventus to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Genoa have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Juventus have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Juventus are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 28% and Genoa at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Genoa 0.85, Juventus 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 44%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Genoa: form and key numbers
In style Genoa are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created, 0.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 58.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Genoa vs Juventus: season averages side by side
| Genoa | Per match this season | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.61 |
| 1.25 | xG conceded | 0.59 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 3.2 | On target | 6.5 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 58.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 8.7 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Genoa
- Leo Østigård CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Morten Frendrup DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 61 · Reads the game, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 67
Francisco Conceição, 23, plays as a winger for Juventus in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.76 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 2.85 / 90 | 73% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 72% |
| Dispossessed | 0.88 / 90 | 70% |
| Expected goals | 0.24 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Francisco Conceição is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Conceição's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Genoa vs Juventus prediction
Juventus should have more of the ball, with Genoa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Juventus work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 0.85 for Genoa and 1.43 for Juventus - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 44%. Juventus have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Genoa 0-1 Juventus
Genoa vs Juventus betting tips
- Tip 1: Juventus win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Genoa vs Juventus: questions and answers
When is Genoa vs Juventus?
Genoa vs Juventus is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Genoa vs Juventus played?
At Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Genoa's home ground.
Who will win Genoa vs Juventus?
Juventus are the favourites: Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Juventus 50%. Our prediction is Genoa 0-1 Juventus.
Who is the player to watch in Genoa vs Juventus?
Francisco Conceição of Juventus: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Juventus?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.