Gent vs Crvena Zvezda Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Planet Group Arena, Gent · updated 2026-11-13
Gent welcome Crvena Zvezda to Planet Group Arena in Gent in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Gent have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.3 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate. Crvena Zvezda have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Gent 40%, the draw 28%, Crvena Zvezda 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gent 1.38, Crvena Zvezda 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Gent: form and key numbers
In style Gent are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.77 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 22% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Crvena Zvezda: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.96 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 20.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Gent vs Crvena Zvezda: season averages side by side
| Gent | Per match this season | Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 20.3 |
| 3.6 | On target | 6.0 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 57.3 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 22% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.9 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Gent
- Maksim Paskotsi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Dominant in the air, Ball-winner (top 38% of his position)
- Mathias Delorge CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 50 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: José Mendieta
José Mendieta · Gent · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66
José Mendieta plays as a centre-forward for Gent in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 58
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.86 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 86% |
| Duels won | 8.43 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.54 / 90 | 80% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.52 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What José Mendieta is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open José Mendieta's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Gent vs Crvena Zvezda prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.38 for Gent and 1.22 for Crvena Zvezda - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Gent 1-1 Crvena Zvezda
Gent vs Crvena Zvezda: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 52% by the model, 2.59 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Gent vs Crvena Zvezda: questions and answers
When is Gent vs Crvena Zvezda?
Gent vs Crvena Zvezda is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Gent vs Crvena Zvezda played?
At Planet Group Arena, Gent, Gent's home ground.
Who will win Gent vs Crvena Zvezda?
It is close: Gent 40%, draw 28%, Crvena Zvezda 32%. Our prediction is Gent 1-1 Crvena Zvezda.
Who is the player to watch in Gent vs Crvena Zvezda?
José Mendieta of Gent: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Gent vs Crvena Zvezda?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.