Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Monday 19 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe · updated 2026-10-09
Getafe host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Monday 19 October 2026 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Getafe slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Getafe 1.40, Rayo Vallecano 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Sergio Camello as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 64, defensive 32).
- Goals: 1.34 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Shots on target: 58%, better than 85% of centre-forwards
- Key passes: 1.53 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of centre-forwards
Getafe concede only 1.0 goals a match this season (1.37 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a poacher like Sergio Camello.
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Getafe | Per match this season | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| 1.37 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 2.7 | On target | 4.6 |
| 40.3 | Possession % | 48.7 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 3.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Getafe
- Ramón Terrats midfielder · rating 7.38 · 6 apps
- David Soria goalkeeper · rating 7.18 · 7 apps
- Iván Azón midfielder · rating 6.97 · 4 apps
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello forward · rating 7.49 · 7 apps
- Unai López midfielder · rating 7.12 · 7 apps
- Emil Audero goalkeeper · rating 6.93 · 3 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.