Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadion Poljud, Split · updated 2026-11-13
Hajduk Split welcome Sint-Truiden to Stadion Poljud in Split in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Hajduk Split have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 40% win rate. Sint-Truiden have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Hajduk Split 36%, the draw 30%, Sint-Truiden 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hajduk Split 1.17, Sint-Truiden 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Hajduk Split: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.81 a match created (goals minus xG: +11.3).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Sint-Truiden: form and key numbers
In style Sint-Truiden keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.87 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.18.
Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden: season averages side by side
| Hajduk Split | Per match this season | Sint-Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 0.81 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.87 |
| 15.0 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 4.9 | On target | 5.7 |
| 51.9 | Possession % | 52.7 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 7.18 |
Players to watch
Sint-Truiden
- Visar Musliu CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 10% of his position)
- Samed Bazdar CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Chance creator, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui, 25 · Sint-Truiden · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Ilias Sebaoui, 25, plays as a winger for Sint-Truiden in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 61
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 37
- RW · Winger Competent, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 3.88 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.95 / 90 | 70% |
| Big chances created | 0.38 / 90 | 59% |
| Fouls won | 1.99 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Ilias Sebaoui is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ilias Sebaoui's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.17 for Hajduk Split and 1.15 for Sint-Truiden - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 48%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Hajduk Split 1-1 Sint-Truiden
Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 59% by the model, 2.32 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Mjällby Thursday 26 November 2026
- FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 26 November 2026
- Ajax vs Thun Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brann vs AGF Thursday 26 November 2026
- Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 26 November 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps Thursday 26 November 2026
- Hearts vs Monaco Thursday 26 November 2026
Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden: questions and answers
When is Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden?
Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden played?
At Stadion Poljud, Split, Hajduk Split's home ground.
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden?
It is close: Hajduk Split 36%, draw 30%, Sint-Truiden 34%. Our prediction is Hajduk Split 1-1 Sint-Truiden.
Who is the player to watch in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden?
Ilias Sebaoui of Sint-Truiden: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.