Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Shell Energy Stadium, Houston · updated 2026-11-14
Houston Dynamo welcome SJ Earthquakes to Shell Energy Stadium in Houston in MLS action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC.
Houston Dynamo have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 57% win rate. SJ Earthquakes have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SJ Earthquakes are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Houston Dynamo at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.21, SJ Earthquakes 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Houston Dynamo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (54% at home).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
SJ Earthquakes: form and key numbers
In style SJ Earthquakes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.79 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (43% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes: season averages side by side
| Houston Dynamo | Per match this season | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 41% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Houston Dynamo
- Jonathan Bond GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 42 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Jack McGlynn CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 40 · Creator, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
SJ Earthquakes
- Paul Marie RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Creator, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Niko Tsakiris CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 34 · Creator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Guilherme
Guilherme, 31 · Houston Dynamo · LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 44
Guilherme, 31, plays as a winger for Houston Dynamo in the MLS. Strongest for his role in fouls won and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 44
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 41
- RW · Winger Competent, 26
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 3.46 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.32 / 90 | 80% |
| Key passes | 2.54 / 90 | 70% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.31 / 90 | 57% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
⚠ 15 goals from only 7.2 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Guilherme is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes prediction
SJ Earthquakes should have more of the ball; SJ Earthquakes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.21 for Houston Dynamo and 1.48 for SJ Earthquakes - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 55%. SJ Earthquakes have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Houston Dynamo 1-2 SJ Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes: what the numbers say
- 1. SJ Earthquakes unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes: questions and answers
When is Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes played?
At Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Houston Dynamo's home ground.
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
SJ Earthquakes are the favourites: Houston Dynamo 30%, draw 27%, SJ Earthquakes 43%. Our prediction is Houston Dynamo 1-2 SJ Earthquakes.
Who is the player to watch in Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
Guilherme of Houston Dynamo: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.