Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-09
Inter host Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Inter clear favourites at 63%, puts the draw at 20% and expects about 3.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter 2.31, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Lautaro Martínez as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 82, defensive 74).
- Shots: 6.11 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 1.23 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 1.11 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-forwards
Shakhtar Donetsk concede only 1.0 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a poacher like Lautaro Martínez.
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Inter | Per match this season | Shakhtar Donetsk |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 1 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.53 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | – |
| 23.2 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 7.4 | On target | 2.0 |
| 63.0 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.2 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 6.0 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Inter in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Inter
- Lautaro Martínez forward · rating 7.63 · 4 apps
- Nicolò Barella midfielder · rating 7.53 · 5 apps
- Pio Esposito forward · rating 7.29 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.