Inter vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-11-13
Inter welcome VfB Stuttgart to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Inter have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. VfB Stuttgart have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Inter are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 18% and VfB Stuttgart at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Inter 2.54, VfB Stuttgart 1.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 18.8 a match, 7.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
VfB Stuttgart: form and key numbers
In style VfB Stuttgart keep the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.98 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Inter vs VfB Stuttgart: season averages side by side
| Inter | Per match this season | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.98 |
| 18.8 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 7.5 | On target | 5.3 |
| 52.3 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Inter
- Nicolò Barella CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Creator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
VfB Stuttgart
- Jeff Chabot CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 77 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Ermedin Demirovic CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73 · Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 80
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29, plays as a wing-back for VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in interceptions and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 80
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 80
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.24 / 90 | 100% |
| Tackles | 3.22 / 90 | 98% |
| Duels won | 7.56 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.39 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.24 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Ball-winner, Duel winner.
- What Maximilian Mittelstädt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Maximilian Mittelstädt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Inter vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
Inter should have more of the ball; Inter work the ball wide and cross; VfB Stuttgart are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.54 for Inter and 1.06 for VfB Stuttgart - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 61%. Inter have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Inter 3-1 VfB Stuttgart
Inter vs VfB Stuttgart: what the numbers say
- 1. Inter win, the likeliest result 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Champions League previews
- Galatasaray vs Aston Villa Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Bodø / Glimt vs LASK Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Real Madrid vs PSV Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Manchester City vs Napoli Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Porto Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Como vs AEK Athens Tuesday 24 November 2026
- Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis Tuesday 24 November 2026
Inter vs VfB Stuttgart: questions and answers
When is Inter vs VfB Stuttgart?
Inter vs VfB Stuttgart is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Inter vs VfB Stuttgart played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Inter's home ground.
Who will win Inter vs VfB Stuttgart?
Inter are the favourites: Inter 69%, draw 18%, VfB Stuttgart 13%. Our prediction is Inter 3-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who is the player to watch in Inter vs VfB Stuttgart?
Maximilian Mittelstädt of VfB Stuttgart: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Inter vs VfB Stuttgart?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.