Internacional vs Vitória Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 36
Brasileirão · Monday 23 November 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre · updated 2026-11-13
Internacional welcome Vitória to Estadio Beira-Rio in Porto Alegre in Brasileirão Gameweek 36 action on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC.
Internacional have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 26% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 17 matches, with a 67% win rate. Vitória have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Internacional are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 27% and Vitória at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Internacional 1.58, Vitória 0.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 47% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Internacional: form and key numbers
In style Internacional are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.45 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.7).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Vitória: form and key numbers
In style Vitória are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 32% of matches (9% away).
- Both teams scored in 41% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Internacional vs Vitória: season averages side by side
| Internacional | Per match this season | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.01 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 4.4 | On target | 4.1 |
| 46.5 | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 24% | Clean sheets % | 32% |
| 56% | Both teams scored % | 41% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Internacional
- Alexandro Bernabei LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 22% of his position)
- Kauan GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 47 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Vitória
- Mateusinho RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 10% of his position)
- Caíque Gonçalves DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 46 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matheus Bahia
Matheus Bahia, 27 · Internacional · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 52
Matheus Bahia, 27, plays as a full-back for Internacional in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 52
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 44
- LWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 40
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.12 / 90 | 79% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.59 / 90 | 70% |
| Interceptions | 1.36 / 90 | 63% |
| Tackles | 2.42 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Creator.
- What Matheus Bahia is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matheus Bahia's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Internacional vs Vitória prediction
Internacional should have more of the ball; Internacional work the ball wide and cross; Vitória go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.58 for Internacional and 0.96 for Vitória - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 50%. Internacional have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Internacional 2-1 Vitória
Internacional vs Vitória: what the numbers say
- 1. Internacional unbeaten (win or draw) 78% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 53% by the model, 2.54 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 15.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026
- Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Saturday 14 November 2026
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
Internacional vs Vitória: questions and answers
When is Internacional vs Vitória?
Internacional vs Vitória is on Monday 23 November 2026, kick-off 22:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 36.
Where is Internacional vs Vitória played?
At Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre, Internacional's home ground.
Who will win Internacional vs Vitória?
Internacional are the favourites: Internacional 51%, draw 27%, Vitória 22%. Our prediction is Internacional 2-1 Vitória.
Who is the player to watch in Internacional vs Vitória?
Matheus Bahia of Internacional: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Internacional vs Vitória?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.