LASK vs Liverpool: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Raiffeisen Arena · updated 2026-10-09
LASK host Liverpool in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes LASK slight favourites at 39%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LASK 1.57, Liverpool 1.50.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, 27 · Liverpool · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Alexander Isak as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 59, defensive 54).
- Expected goals: 0.73 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of centre-forwards
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.22 xG per shot, better than 89% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 0.87 per 90 minutes, better than 87% of centre-forwards
LASK concede 1.7 goals a match this season, more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Alexander Isak lives on.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| LASK | Per match this season | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 23.7 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 6.3 | On target | 4.8 |
| 45.0 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Liverpool in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Liverpool
- Dominik Szoboszlai midfielder · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Jérémy Jacquet defender · rating 7.29 · 5 apps
- Cody Gakpo midfielder · rating 7.26 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.