Napoli vs Frosinone: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-09
Napoli host Frosinone in Serie A on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Napoli slight favourites at 41%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.58, Frosinone 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Giorgi Kvernadze as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 73, defensive 41).
- Successful dribbles: 3.30 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
- Key passes: 2.47 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of wingers
- Expected goals: 0.32 per 90 minutes, better than 78% of wingers
Napoli concede 1.2 goals a match this season (1.59 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a inside forward like Giorgi Kvernadze.
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Napoli | Per match this season | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 2.07 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 4.2 | On target | 5.6 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 41.4 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Napoli
- Kevin De Bruyne midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Stanislav Lobotka midfielder · rating 7.13 · 5 apps
- Amir Rrahmani defender · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
Frosinone
- Giacomo Calò midfielder · rating 7.82 · 5 apps
- Giorgi Kvernadze midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Lorenzo Palmisani goalkeeper · rating 7.27 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Frosinone vs Sassuolo Friday 16 October 2026
- Venezia vs Napoli Saturday 17 October 2026
- Bologna vs Inter Saturday 17 October 2026
- Roma vs Genoa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.