Lens vs Paris Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-10-10
Lens welcome Paris to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
Lens have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Paris have played 5 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 26% and Lens at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.37, Paris 1.60.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens press high, cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.98 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Paris: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 0.85 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
Lens vs Paris: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.81 | xG conceded | 0.85 |
| 14.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 6.5 | On target | 4.6 |
| 50.5 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Ruben Aguilar RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 7% of his position)
- Robin François Philippe Risser GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 54 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Paris
- Lassine Sinayoko CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 70 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 13% of his position)
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 70
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.00 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.48 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected goals | 0.61 / 90 | 98% |
| Big chances created | 1.00 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.17 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Paris prediction
Lens should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.37 for Lens and 1.60 for Paris - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Paris have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lens 1-2 Paris
Lens vs Paris betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris win or draw (double chance) 68% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.97 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Saturday 10 October 2026
- Monaco vs Toulouse Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers SCO Saturday 10 October 2026
- Troyes vs Olympique Marseille Sunday 11 October 2026
- Le Mans vs Toulouse Friday 16 October 2026
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
Lens vs Paris: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Paris?
Lens vs Paris is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is Lens vs Paris played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Paris?
Paris are the favourites: Lens 32%, draw 26%, Paris 42%. Our prediction is Lens 1-2 Paris.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Paris?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Paris?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.