Lens vs Toulouse Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-11-13
Lens welcome Toulouse to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Lens have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate. Toulouse have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lens are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 25% and Toulouse at 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.71, Toulouse 1.46.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 51.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Lens vs Toulouse: season averages side by side
| Lens | Per match this season | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.44 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.4 | On target | 4.7 |
| 49.7 | Possession % | 51.9 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Lens
- Andrija Bulatovic CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Michaël Cuisance CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Creator (top 6% of his position)
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 78 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Casper Tengstedt CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 73
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.98 / 90 | 100% |
| Key passes | 3.18 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.03 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.45 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lens vs Toulouse prediction
Toulouse should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross; Toulouse like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.71 for Lens and 1.46 for Toulouse - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 63%. Lens have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lens 2-1 Toulouse
Lens vs Toulouse: what the numbers say
- 1. Lens unbeaten (win or draw) 68% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Lens vs Toulouse: questions and answers
When is Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens vs Toulouse is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Lens vs Toulouse played?
At Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens, Lens's home ground.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens are the favourites: Lens 43%, draw 25%, Toulouse 32%. Our prediction is Lens 2-1 Toulouse.
Who is the player to watch in Lens vs Toulouse?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Toulouse?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.