Lorient vs Rennes Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient · updated 2026-11-13
Lorient welcome Rennes to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Lorient have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Rennes have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lorient are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Rennes at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lorient 1.61, Rennes 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 30% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.92 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Lorient vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 |
| 1.14 | xG conceded | 1.90 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 2.8 | On target | 6.0 |
| 47.2 | Possession % | 51.8 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 30% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 6% of his position)
- Isaak Touré CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
Rennes
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Estéban Lepaul CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida, 21 · Rennes · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 72
Mahamadou Nagida, 21, plays as a wing-back for Rennes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in interceptions and successful dribbles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 72
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 72
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.40 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 97% |
| Duels won | 6.60 / 90 | 90% |
| Tackles | 2.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.35 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Dribbler, Duel winner.
- What Mahamadou Nagida is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mahamadou Nagida's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Rennes prediction
Rennes should have more of the ball, with Lorient likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.61 for Lorient and 1.27 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Lorient have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lorient 2-1 Rennes
Lorient vs Rennes: what the numbers say
- 1. Lorient unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Lorient vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Rennes?
Lorient vs Rennes is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Lorient vs Rennes played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Rennes?
Lorient are the favourites: Lorient 45%, draw 26%, Rennes 30%. Our prediction is Lorient 2-1 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Rennes?
Mahamadou Nagida of Rennes: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.