Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Allianz Riviera, Nice · updated 2026-11-13
Nice welcome Paris Saint Germain to Allianz Riviera in Nice in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Nice have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 60% win rate. Paris Saint Germain have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 70% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris Saint Germain are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Nice at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nice 1.26, Paris Saint Germain 1.71.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.28 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 68.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain: season averages side by side
| Nice | Per match this season | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.28 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.15 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 4.4 | On target | 7.8 |
| 52.8 | Possession % | 68.8 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 7.10 |
Players to watch
Nice
- Yehvann Diouf GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 31% of his position)
- Elye Wahi CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 82 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
- João Neves CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 79 · Ball-winner, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 86
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 86
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 82
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.61 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 92% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.26 for Nice and 1.71 for Paris Saint Germain - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Nice 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain: what the numbers say
- 1. Paris Saint Germain unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 57% by the model, 2.97 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Nice vs Paris Saint Germain: questions and answers
When is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain played?
At Allianz Riviera, Nice, Nice's home ground.
Who will win Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Nice 28%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 47%. Our prediction is Nice 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Who is the player to watch in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 86 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.