Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-11-13
Monaco welcome Auxerre to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Monaco have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Auxerre have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 3.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Monaco are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and Auxerre at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.92, Auxerre 1.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Monaco: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.13 a match created, 1.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 11.1 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Monaco vs Auxerre: season averages side by side
| Monaco | Per match this season | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.1 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.85 |
| 11.7 | Shots | 11.1 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.5 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 70% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Paris Brunner CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 54 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Gets into scoring positions (top 24% of his position)
- Nazinho LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
Auxerre
- Christ Makosso CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Box defender, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
- Romain Faivre AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lamine Camara
Lamine Camara, 22 · Monaco · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 62
Lamine Camara, 22, plays as a central midfielder for Monaco in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and long balls. Weakest in expected assists (est.). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 62
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 92% |
| Long balls | 3.70 / 90 | 86% |
| Tackles | 3.20 / 90 | 81% |
| Dispossessed | 0.60 / 90 | 79% |
| Passes | 66.50 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Long passer, Ball-winner.
- What Lamine Camara is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lamine Camara's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monaco vs Auxerre prediction
Monaco should have more of the ball, with Auxerre likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Auxerre like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.92 for Monaco and 1.06 for Auxerre - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 57%. Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Monaco 2-1 Auxerre
Monaco vs Auxerre: what the numbers say
- 1. Monaco win, the likeliest result 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Monaco vs Auxerre: questions and answers
When is Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco vs Auxerre is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Monaco vs Auxerre played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, Monaco's home ground.
Who will win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco are the favourites: Monaco 57%, draw 23%, Auxerre 20%. Our prediction is Monaco 2-1 Auxerre.
Who is the player to watch in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Lamine Camara of Monaco: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.