Villarreal vs Elche: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 14:15 UTC · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · updated 2026-10-09
Villarreal host Elche in La Liga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Estadio de la Cerámica. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Villarreal clear favourites at 62%, puts the draw at 19% and expects about 3.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Villarreal 2.53, Elche 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 75% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Alberto Moleiro as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 79, defensive 46).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.47 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Key passes: 3.50 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.88 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
Elche concede 2.4 goals a match this season (1.70 expected), more than the league's average: the space a creative winger like Alberto Moleiro lives on.
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Villarreal | Per match this season | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.34 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 6.6 | On target | 5.0 |
| 61.9 | Possession % | 49.9 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 7.3 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.64 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth defender · rating 7.43 · 3 apps
- Alberto Moleiro midfielder · rating 7.31 · 7 apps
- Péter Gulácsi goalkeeper · rating 7.30 · 3 apps
Elche
- Fer Niño forward · rating 7.11 · 7 apps
- Lucas Cepeda forward · rating 6.96 · 7 apps
- Gonzalo Villar midfielder · rating 6.92 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.