Lille vs Lens Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Lille welcome Lens to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Ligue 1 action on Saturday 31 October 2026.
Lille have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lens have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lille 40%, the draw 27%, Lens 33%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lille -0.25 at 2.12, Lens at 1.79. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.92, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.61 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Lille vs Lens: season averages side by side
| Lille | Per match | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.82 |
| 1.61 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 1.38 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 2.1 |
| 44.0 | Pressure share % | 60.5 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 16.9 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Lille vs Lens: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lille have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lille 6, Lens 3 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lille 3-0 Lens (April 4th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lille won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Lille | 3 – 0 | Lens |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Lens | 3 – 0 | Lille |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Lille | 1 – 0 | Lens |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Lens | 0 – 2 | Lille |
Players to watch
Lille
- Ethan Mbappé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 60 · Press-resistant, Draws fouls (top 18% of his position)
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 41% of his position)
Lens
- Michaël Cuisance CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 52 · Secure passer, Gets into scoring positions (top 16% of his position)
- Ismaëlo Ganiou CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball-winner, Disciplined (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 77
Florian Thauvin, 33, plays as a winger for Lens in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 77
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 3.49 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.55 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.16 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 3.49 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.49 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Florian Thauvin is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Florian Thauvin's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lille vs Lens prediction
Lens should have more of the ball; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.52 for Lille and 1.38 for Lens - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lille 1-1 Lens
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lille vs Lens betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Lorient Monday 26 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Monday 26 October 2026
- Marseille vs Le Havre Monday 26 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Monday 26 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Monday 26 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 31 October 2026
Lille vs Lens: questions and answers
When is Lille vs Lens?
Lille vs Lens is on Saturday 31 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lille vs Lens played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, Lille's home ground.
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
It is close: Lille 40%, draw 27%, Lens 33%. Our prediction is Lille 1-1 Lens.
Who is the player to watch in Lille vs Lens?
Florian Thauvin of Lens: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Lens?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.