Lincoln City vs Wrexham Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · LNER Stadium, Lincoln · updated 2026-11-13
Lincoln City welcome Wrexham to LNER Stadium in Lincoln in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Lincoln City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.1 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 25% win rate. Wrexham have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lincoln City 35%, the draw 28%, Wrexham 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lincoln City 1.26, Wrexham 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Lincoln City: form and key numbers
In style Lincoln City are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 1.62 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.3).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 37.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Wrexham: form and key numbers
In style Wrexham play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.26 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Lincoln City vs Wrexham: season averages side by side
| Lincoln City | Per match this season | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.42 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.23 |
| 1.62 | xG conceded | 1.26 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 3.1 | On target | 3.3 |
| 37.0 | Possession % | 48.1 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Lincoln City
- Mikkel Ladefoged CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 58 · Dominant in the air, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Callum Elder LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Creator (top 10% of his position)
Wrexham
- Max Cleworth CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 32 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 40% of his position)
- George Dobson DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 32 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 41% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore, 34 · Wrexham · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 31
Kieffer Moore, 34, plays as a centre-forward for Wrexham in the Championship. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 31
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 10.39 / 90 | 99% |
| Aerial duels won | 5.79 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots on target | 41% | 52% |
| Big chances missed | 0.34 / 90 | 49% |
| Key passes | 1.28 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air.
- What Kieffer Moore is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kieffer Moore's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lincoln City vs Wrexham prediction
Wrexham should have more of the ball, with Lincoln City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.26 for Lincoln City and 1.28 for Wrexham - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lincoln City 1-1 Wrexham
Lincoln City vs Wrexham: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 36%
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.53 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Lincoln City vs Wrexham: questions and answers
When is Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Lincoln City vs Wrexham is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Lincoln City vs Wrexham played?
At LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincoln City's home ground.
Who will win Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
It is close: Lincoln City 35%, draw 28%, Wrexham 36%. Our prediction is Lincoln City 1-1 Wrexham.
Who is the player to watch in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Kieffer Moore of Wrexham: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 31 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lincoln City vs Wrexham?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.