Liverpool vs Manchester City: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Liverpool host Manchester City in the Premier League on Sunday 11 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Liverpool 33%, the draw 26%, Manchester City 41% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Liverpool 0 at 2.17, Manchester City at 1.75. The main goals line is 3: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Manchester City create more: 2.00 expected goals a match against 1.84 for Liverpool.
- Manchester City give away less, 1.11 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Liverpool 15.2 (4.8 on target), Manchester City 13.6 (5.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Liverpool 63.6%, Manchester City 65.4%.
| Liverpool | Per match | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.00 |
| 1.32 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 2.60 |
| 15.2 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 63.6 | Pressure share % | 65.4 |
| 16.4 | Tackles | 12.2 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Liverpool won 4, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Liverpool | 1 – 2 | Manchester City |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Manchester City | 3 – 0 | Liverpool |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Manchester City | 0 – 2 | Liverpool |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Liverpool | 2 – 0 | Manchester City |
| 10 Apr 2018 | Manchester City | 1 – 2 | Liverpool |
| 4 Apr 2018 | Liverpool | 3 – 0 | Manchester City |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Liverpool vs Manchester City in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Saturday 10 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Brentford Saturday 10 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC Saturday 10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.