Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 16
Russian Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 16:45 UTC · RZD Arena, Moskva · updated 2026-11-15
Lokomotiv Moskva welcome Dynamo Makhachkala to RZD Arena in Moskva in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Lokomotiv Moskva have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 0% win rate. Dynamo Makhachkala have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 8 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Lokomotiv Moskva 41%, the draw 25%, Dynamo Makhachkala 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moskva 1.60, Dynamo Makhachkala 1.42.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Lokomotiv Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Lokomotiv Moskva are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 2.05 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Dynamo Makhachkala: form and key numbers
In style Dynamo Makhachkala are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala: season averages side by side
| Lokomotiv Moskva | Per match this season | Dynamo Makhachkala |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 |
| 2.05 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 3.5 | On target | 3.5 |
| 50.1 | Possession % | 44.0 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.67 |
Players to watch
Lokomotiv Moskva
- Aleksey Batrakov AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 36 · Press-resistant, Draws fouls (top 10% of his position)
- César Montes CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 35 · Dominant in the air, Hard to dribble past (top 18% of his position)
Dynamo Makhachkala
- Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 32 · Big-chance creator, Through-ball threat (top 46% of his position)
- Nikita Karabashev GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 31 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 66% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergey Pinyaev
Sergey Pinyaev, 22 · Lokomotiv Moskva · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 30
Sergey Pinyaev, 22, plays as a winger for Lokomotiv Moskva in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and accurate crosses. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 30
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 27
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 27
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.44 / 90 | 72% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.03 / 90 | 50% |
| Big chances created | 0.44 / 90 | 50% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 40% |
| Shots | 3.37 / 90 | 37% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★ Creative winger Winger
- What Sergey Pinyaev is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergey Pinyaev's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala prediction
Lokomotiv Moskva should have more of the ball, with Dynamo Makhachkala likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lokomotiv Moskva are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Dynamo Makhachkala go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.60 for Lokomotiv Moskva and 1.42 for Dynamo Makhachkala - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lokomotiv Moskva 1-1 Dynamo Makhachkala
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 6.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026
- Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Saturday 21 November 2026
- Akron vs Fakel Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Zenit Saturday 21 November 2026
- CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala: questions and answers
When is Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16.
Where is Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala played?
At RZD Arena, Moskva, Lokomotiv Moskva's home ground.
Who will win Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
It is close: Lokomotiv Moskva 41%, draw 25%, Dynamo Makhachkala 34%. Our prediction is Lokomotiv Moskva 1-1 Dynamo Makhachkala.
Who is the player to watch in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Sergey Pinyaev of Lokomotiv Moskva: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 30 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.