Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City Prediction and Stats
MLS · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 01:30 UTC · BMO Stadium, Los Angeles · updated 2026-11-15
Los Angeles FC welcome St. Louis City to BMO Stadium in Los Angeles in MLS action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 01:30 UTC.
Los Angeles FC have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 35% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 75% win rate. St. Louis City have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Los Angeles FC are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 27% and St. Louis City at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.54, St. Louis City 1.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Los Angeles FC: form and key numbers
In style Los Angeles FC press high.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 15.1 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (62% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
St. Louis City: form and key numbers
In style St. Louis City keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.53 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 65% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City: season averages side by side
| Los Angeles FC | Per match this season | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 15.1 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 4.9 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.1 | Possession % | 52.6 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 65% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Los Angeles FC
- Ryan Raposo LMF · Direct wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 42 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 17% of his position)
- Leo Walta AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 38 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 33% of his position)
St. Louis City
- Carlo Holse AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 40 · Big-chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 19% of his position)
- Cedric Teuchert CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Chance creator, Accurate shooter (top 16% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Denis Bouanga
Denis Bouanga, 32 · Los Angeles FC · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 38
Denis Bouanga, 32, plays as a winger for Los Angeles FC in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 38
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 35
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 29
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.43 / 90 | 87% |
| Shots | 3.31 / 90 | 58% |
| Big chances created | 0.39 / 90 | 50% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.07 / 90 | 46% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 46% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions.
- What Denis Bouanga is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Denis Bouanga's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City prediction
St. Louis City should have more of the ball, with Los Angeles FC likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Los Angeles FC press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.54 for Los Angeles FC and 1.19 for St. Louis City - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Los Angeles FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Los Angeles FC 2-1 St. Louis City
Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City: what the numbers say
- 1. Los Angeles FC unbeaten (win or draw) 71% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 7.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City: questions and answers
When is Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 01:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City played?
At BMO Stadium, Los Angeles, Los Angeles FC's home ground.
Who will win Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
Los Angeles FC are the favourites: Los Angeles FC 45%, draw 27%, St. Louis City 29%. Our prediction is Los Angeles FC 2-1 St. Louis City.
Who is the player to watch in Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
Denis Bouanga of Los Angeles FC: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 38 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.