LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Wednesday 25 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · updated 2026-11-13
LOSC Lille welcome FC Bayern München to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
LOSC Lille have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. FC Bayern München have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Bayern München are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 24% and LOSC Lille at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LOSC Lille 0.97, FC Bayern München 1.79.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.93 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 8.5 a match, 2.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
FC Bayern München: form and key numbers
In style FC Bayern München keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.57 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 20.5 a match, 7.5 on target.
- Possession: 58.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München: season averages side by side
| LOSC Lille | Per match this season | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.57 |
| 8.5 | Shots | 20.5 |
| 2.3 | On target | 7.5 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 58.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 75 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
- Olivier Giroud CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
FC Bayern München
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 92
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 92
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 88
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 85
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.46 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.56 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 4.82 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 0.96 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls won | 2.17 / 90 | 97% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München prediction
FC Bayern München should have more of the ball, with LOSC Lille likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; FC Bayern München like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 0.97 for LOSC Lille and 1.79 for FC Bayern München - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 52%. FC Bayern München have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: LOSC Lille 1-2 FC Bayern München
LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Bayern München win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München: questions and answers
When is LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München?
LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München is on Wednesday 25 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, LOSC Lille's home ground.
Who will win LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München are the favourites: LOSC Lille 20%, draw 24%, FC Bayern München 56%. Our prediction is LOSC Lille 1-2 FC Bayern München.
Who is the player to watch in LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 92 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in LOSC Lille vs FC Bayern München?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.