LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · updated 2026-10-17
LOSC Lille welcome Galatasaray to Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
LOSC Lille have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Galatasaray have played 2 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, LOSC Lille are clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 21% and Galatasaray at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LOSC Lille 2.21, Galatasaray 1.06.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Galatasaray: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.84 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.48.
LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray: season averages side by side
| LOSC Lille | Per match this season | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 3.5 |
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.84 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.5 | Shots | 7.5 |
| 5.5 | On target | 3.0 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 45.5 |
| 67% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 1.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.48 |
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Berke Özer GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 58 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 48% of his position)
- Tiago Santos WB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 47 · Duel winner, Crosser (top 29% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexsandro
Alexsandro, 27 · LOSC Lille · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60
Alexsandro, 27, plays as a centre-back for LOSC Lille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and clearances. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 60
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 55
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 98% |
| Clearances | 7.67 / 90 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 1.17 / 90 | 81% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 81% |
| Passes | 66.50 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Box defender, Blocks shots.
- What Alexsandro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexsandro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.21 for LOSC Lille and 1.06 for Galatasaray - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 59%. LOSC Lille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: LOSC Lille 2-1 Galatasaray
LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray betting tips
- Tip 1: LOSC Lille to win 63% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 4.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray: questions and answers
When is LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray?
LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray played?
At Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq, LOSC Lille's home ground.
Who will win LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray?
LOSC Lille are the favourites: LOSC Lille 63%, draw 21%, Galatasaray 16%. Our prediction is LOSC Lille 2-1 Galatasaray.
Who is the player to watch in LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray?
Alexsandro of LOSC Lille: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.