LOSC Lille vs Galatasaray: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq · updated 2026-10-09
LOSC Lille host Galatasaray in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes LOSC Lille favourites at 55%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: LOSC Lille 1.91, Galatasaray 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alexsandro
Alexsandro, 27 · LOSC Lille · CB · Ball-playing centre-back
Moneyball Scout picks Alexsandro as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 28, defensive 57).
- Dribbled past: 0.00 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-backs
- Clearances: 7.40 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of centre-backs
- Pass accuracy: 92%, better than 83% of centre-backs
Galatasaray score 1.0 goals a match this season from 1.33 expected: stopping them runs through Alexsandro.
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Box defender, Secure passer.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| LOSC Lille | Per match this season | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 3.0 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | – |
| 12.8 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 6.4 | On target | 3.0 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 62.0 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.54 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; LOSC Lille in its domestic league.
Players to watch
LOSC Lille
- Tiago Santos defender · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Berke Özer goalkeeper · rating 7.25 · 5 apps
- Alexsandro defender · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Sabah vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Lens vs Sporting CP Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.