Manchester United vs Roma Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester · updated 2026-10-20
Manchester United welcome Roma to Old Trafford in Manchester in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Manchester United have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Roma have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Manchester United at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Manchester United 1.14, Roma 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.17 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 19.7 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.16 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.1 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 71% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Manchester United vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Manchester United | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 |
| 1.17 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 19.7 | Shots | 18.1 |
| 5.0 | On target | 6.0 |
| 55.6 | Possession % | 55.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 71% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 29% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Players to watch
Manchester United
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Ball circulator, Press-resistant (top 8% of his position)
- Marcus Rashford LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · Press-resistant, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Roma
- Paulo Dybala SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in goals and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Manchester United vs Roma prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.14 for Manchester United and 1.58 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Manchester United 0-1 Roma
Manchester United vs Roma betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP Tuesday 3 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Inter Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 3 November 2026
- LASK vs Slovan Bratislava Tuesday 3 November 2026
Manchester United vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Manchester United vs Roma?
Manchester United vs Roma is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Manchester United vs Roma played?
At Old Trafford, Manchester, Manchester United's home ground.
Who will win Manchester United vs Roma?
Roma are the favourites: Manchester United 27%, draw 26%, Roma 47%. Our prediction is Manchester United 0-1 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Manchester United vs Roma?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.