Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 20 September 2026 · 02:45 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Marseille host Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 20 September 2026 (02:45).
Form in numbers
- Paris Saint Germain create more: 2.13 expected goals a match against 1.65 for Marseille.
- Paris Saint Germain give away less, 1.02 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Marseille 13.2 (4.8 on target), Paris Saint Germain 21.2 (7.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Marseille 51.9%, Paris Saint Germain 76.7%.
| Marseille | Per match | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.13 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | 1.02 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 7.2 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 3.6 |
| 51.9 | Pressure share % | 76.7 |
| 13.6 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Marseille won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Marseille | 1 – 2 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 – 0 | Marseille |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Marseille | 1 – 0 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 – 1 | Marseille |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Marseille | 0 – 3 | Paris Saint Germain |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.