Middlesbrough vs Bristol City Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 16
Championship · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough · updated 2026-11-13
Middlesbrough welcome Bristol City to Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough in Championship Gameweek 16 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Middlesbrough have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 63% win rate. Bristol City have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 7 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Middlesbrough are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 20% and Bristol City at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Middlesbrough 2.20, Bristol City 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Middlesbrough: form and key numbers
In style Middlesbrough keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 19.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 60.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Bristol City: form and key numbers
In style Bristol City are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.6).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: season averages side by side
| Middlesbrough | Per match this season | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.01 | xG conceded | 1.58 |
| 19.1 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 6.1 | On target | 4.3 |
| 60.8 | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 53% |
| 6.1 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Middlesbrough
- Aidan Morris CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 45 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 8% of his position)
- Amario Cozier-Duberry RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 12% of his position)
Bristol City
- Rio Cardines LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 44 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Rob Atkinson CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 43 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear, 21 · Middlesbrough · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50
Will Lankshear, 21, plays as a centre-forward for Middlesbrough in the Championship. Strongest for his role in shots on target and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 50
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 52% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.85 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 80% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 77% |
| Shots | 4.12 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Will Lankshear is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Will Lankshear's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City prediction
Middlesbrough should have more of the ball, with Bristol City likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Middlesbrough work the ball wide and cross; Bristol City are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 2.20 for Middlesbrough and 0.95 for Bristol City - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 55%. Middlesbrough have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Middlesbrough 2-1 Bristol City
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: what the numbers say
- 1. Middlesbrough win, the likeliest result 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.15 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: questions and answers
When is Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 16.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Bristol City played?
At Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough's home ground.
Who will win Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
Middlesbrough are the favourites: Middlesbrough 65%, draw 20%, Bristol City 15%. Our prediction is Middlesbrough 2-1 Bristol City.
Who is the player to watch in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
Will Lankshear of Middlesbrough: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.