Millwall vs Burnley Prediction and Stats | Championship Gameweek 18
Championship · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 15:00 UTC · The Den, London · updated 2026-11-14
Millwall welcome Burnley to The Den in London in Championship Gameweek 18 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Millwall have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 60% win rate. Burnley have played 15 matches in the Championship this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 7% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded over 8 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Millwall are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 21% and Burnley at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Millwall 2.26, Burnley 1.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (15 and 15 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Millwall: form and key numbers
In style Millwall press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.8).
- Shots: 14.1 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Burnley: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.80 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 87% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Millwall vs Burnley: season averages side by side
| Millwall | Per match this season | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Matches | 15 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.80 |
| 14.1 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 3.9 | On target | 4.1 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 47.8 |
| 27% | Clean sheets % | 13% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 87% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Millwall
- Josh Coburn CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 53 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 3% of his position)
- Caleb Taylor CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 40 · Dominant in the air, Reads the game (top 8% of his position)
Burnley
- Jacob Bruun Larsen LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Big-chance creator, Press-resistant (top 14% of his position)
- Marcus Edwards RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 37 · Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires, 25 · Burnley · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 41
Lucas Pires, 25, plays as a wing-back for Burnley in the Championship. Strongest for his role in interceptions and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 41
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 41
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 83% |
| Tackles | 3.48 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 57% |
| Duels won | 6.49 / 90 | 52% |
| Key passes | 1.74 / 90 | 49% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Lucas Pires is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Pires's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Millwall vs Burnley prediction
Burnley should have more of the ball; Millwall are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.26 for Millwall and 1.43 for Burnley - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 69%. Millwall have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Millwall 3-1 Burnley
Millwall vs Burnley: what the numbers say
- 1. Millwall win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.69 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Championship previews
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- Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic Saturday 21 November 2026
- West Ham United vs Preston North End Saturday 21 November 2026
- Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion Saturday 21 November 2026
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City Saturday 21 November 2026
- Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026
Millwall vs Burnley: questions and answers
When is Millwall vs Burnley?
Millwall vs Burnley is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Championship Gameweek 18.
Where is Millwall vs Burnley played?
At The Den, London, Millwall's home ground.
Who will win Millwall vs Burnley?
Millwall are the favourites: Millwall 56%, draw 21%, Burnley 23%. Our prediction is Millwall 3-1 Burnley.
Who is the player to watch in Millwall vs Burnley?
Lucas Pires of Burnley: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 41 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Burnley?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.