Mirassol vs Athletico PR Prediction and Stats | Brasileirão Gameweek 37
Brasileirão · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol · updated 2026-11-15
Mirassol welcome Athletico PR to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol in Brasileirão Gameweek 37 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Mirassol have played 35 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 18 matches, with a 70% win rate. Athletico PR have played 34 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Mirassol 36%, the draw 26%, Athletico PR 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Mirassol 1.42, Athletico PR 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (35 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Mirassol: form and key numbers
In style Mirassol cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 1.78 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Athletico PR: form and key numbers
In style Athletico PR play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.1).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 59% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Mirassol vs Athletico PR: season averages side by side
| Mirassol | Per match this season | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 1.78 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.9 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 59% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Mirassol
- Reinaldo LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Gabriel CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 12% of his position)
Athletico PR
- Kerwin Vargas RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 6% of his position)
- Gilberto RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 50 · Creator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Esquivel
Lucas Esquivel, 25 · Athletico PR · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57
Lucas Esquivel, 25, plays as a wing-back for Athletico PR in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 57
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 54
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.77 / 90 | 88% |
| Tackles | 2.84 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 71% |
| Key passes | 1.82 / 90 | 66% |
| Dribbled past | 0.56 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Lucas Esquivel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Esquivel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Mirassol vs Athletico PR prediction
Mirassol should have more of the ball; Mirassol work the ball wide and cross; Athletico PR go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.42 for Mirassol and 1.48 for Athletico PR - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Mirassol 1-1 Athletico PR
Mirassol vs Athletico PR: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 38%
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 13.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Santos Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Remo vs Chapecoense Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026
- Grêmio vs Bahia Thursday 19 November 2026
- Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Thursday 19 November 2026
Mirassol vs Athletico PR: questions and answers
When is Mirassol vs Athletico PR?
Mirassol vs Athletico PR is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 37.
Where is Mirassol vs Athletico PR played?
At Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Mirassol's home ground.
Who will win Mirassol vs Athletico PR?
It is close: Mirassol 36%, draw 26%, Athletico PR 38%. Our prediction is Mirassol 1-1 Athletico PR.
Who is the player to watch in Mirassol vs Athletico PR?
Lucas Esquivel of Athletico PR: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 57 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Athletico PR?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.