Monza vs Napoli Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · U-Power Stadium, Monza · updated 2026-10-14
Monza welcome Napoli to U-Power Stadium in Monza in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Monza have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Napoli have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Napoli are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and Monza at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monza 1.55, Napoli 1.77.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.35 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli are strong in the air, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 14.7 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Monza vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Monza | Per match this season | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.7 |
| 6.0 | On target | 4.8 |
| 44.2 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.69 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Monza
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 2% of his position)
- Ebenezer Akinsanmiro CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 55 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 24% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 63
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 58
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 3.57 / 90 | 91% |
| Through balls | 0.25 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 77% |
| Dispossessed | 0.76 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, Through-ball threat.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monza vs Napoli prediction
Napoli should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monza work the ball wide and cross; Napoli are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.55 for Monza and 1.77 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Monza 1-2 Napoli
Monza vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Monza vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Monza vs Napoli?
Monza vs Napoli is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Monza vs Napoli played?
At U-Power Stadium, Monza, Monza's home ground.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Napoli are the favourites: Monza 33%, draw 24%, Napoli 43%. Our prediction is Monza 1-2 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Monza vs Napoli?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.