Monza vs Napoli Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Monza welcome Napoli to U-Power Stadium in Monza in Serie A action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
Monza have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Napoli have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Napoli are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Monza at 24%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Monza +0.5 at 2.08, Napoli at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.75: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Monza: form and key numbers
In style Monza are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.46 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.91 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Monza vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Monza | Per match | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.91 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 1.88 | Goals | 1.63 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 42.9 | Pressure share % | 53.7 |
| 15.1 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 8.5 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Monza vs Napoli: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Monza have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Monza 0, Napoli 3 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Monza 0-1 Napoli (April 19th 2025).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Monza won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | Monza | 0 – 1 | Napoli |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Napoli | 2 – 0 | Monza |
Players to watch
Monza
- Andrea Colpani AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 61 · Gets into scoring positions, Through-ball threat (top 26% of his position)
- Lorenzo Lucchesi CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Matteo Politano RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 68
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 68
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.65 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 89% |
| Dispossessed | 0.58 / 90 | 89% |
| Through balls | 0.19 / 90 | 84% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monza vs Napoli prediction
Napoli should have more of the ball, with Monza likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monza work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.67 for Monza and 1.76 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 68%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Monza 1-2 Napoli
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Monza vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.43 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
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- AS Roma vs Cagliari Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Thursday 29 October 2026
Monza vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Monza vs Napoli?
Monza vs Napoli is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Monza vs Napoli played?
At U-Power Stadium, Monza, Monza's home ground.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
Napoli are the favourites: Monza 24%, draw 26%, Napoli 50%. Our prediction is Monza 1-2 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Monza vs Napoli?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.