NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Eredivisie · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-11-15
NEC Nijmegen welcome FC Twente to Goffertstadion in Nijmegen in Eredivisie Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. FC Twente have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Twente are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and NEC Nijmegen at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.19, FC Twente 2.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
In style NEC Nijmegen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
In style FC Twente keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.63 a match created, 0.78 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 20.9 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente: season averages side by side
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.63 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | 0.78 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 20.9 |
| 4.6 | On target | 7.3 |
| 59.2 | Possession % | 59.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
NEC Nijmegen
- Darko Nejasmic DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 54 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
- Clement Mutahi Bischoff WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 53 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 15% of his position)
FC Twente
- Sondre Ørjasæter LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant (top 13% of his position)
- Thomas van den Belt CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 43 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst, 34 · FC Twente · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 59
Wout Weghorst, 34, plays as a centre-forward for FC Twente in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 59
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.73 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.75 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 3.37 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter.
- What Wout Weghorst is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Wout Weghorst's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente prediction
NEC Nijmegen should have more of the ball; NEC Nijmegen are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Twente work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.19 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.00 for FC Twente - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 61%. FC Twente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 FC Twente
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente: what the numbers say
- 1. FC Twente win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 13.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Twente vs Willem II Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente: questions and answers
When is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 14.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente played?
At Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen's home ground.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
FC Twente are the favourites: NEC Nijmegen 22%, draw 23%, FC Twente 56%. Our prediction is NEC Nijmegen 1-2 FC Twente.
Who is the player to watch in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Wout Weghorst of FC Twente: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 59 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Twente?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.