Nice vs Lille: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 20 September 2026 · 23:15 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Nice host Lille in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 20 September 2026 (23:15). The bookmakers make Lille narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 28% and Nice at 27%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Nice +0.25 at 2.12, Lille at 1.75. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.93, under 1.91, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Lille create more: 1.26 expected goals a match against 0.97 for Nice.
- Nice give away less, 1.47 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Nice 11.8 (3.0 on target), Lille 12.8 (6.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Nice 57.0%, Lille 45.9%.
| Nice | Per match | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 0.60 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 57.0 | Pressure share % | 45.9 |
| 14.4 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Nice won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Nice | 2 – 1 | Lille |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Lille | 0 – 0 | Nice |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Nice | 2 – 0 | Lille |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Lille | 2 – 1 | Nice |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Nice | 2 – 2 | Lille |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Lyon Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lille vs Le Havre Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.