Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · The City Ground, Nottingham · updated 2026-10-09
Nottingham Forest host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October 2026 at The City Ground. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Arsenal slight favourites at 38%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 30% and expects about 2.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.09, Arsenal 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Dribbling playmaker
Moneyball Scout picks Morgan Gibbs-White as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 28).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of attacking midfielders
- Big chances created: 1.00 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of attacking midfielders
- Key passes: 2.80 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of attacking midfielders
Arsenal concede only 0.8 goals a match this season (0.92 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a dribbling playmaker like Morgan Gibbs-White.
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Nottingham Forest | Per match this season | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 |
| 1.08 | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 16.4 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.4 | Possession % | 59.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 20% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White forward · rating 7.52 · 5 apps
- Neco Williams midfielder · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
- James McAtee midfielder · rating 7.11 · 5 apps
Arsenal
- Bukayo Saka midfielder · rating 7.40 · 5 apps
- Martin Ødegaard midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Declan Rice midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.