Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva Prediction and Stats | Russian Premier League Gameweek 16
Russian Premier League · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 10:00 UTC · Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg · updated 2026-11-15
Orenburg welcome Rodina Moskva to Stadion Gazovik in Orenburg in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Orenburg have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 21% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 7 matches, with a 67% win rate. Rodina Moskva have played 14 matches in Russian Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 21% of them. Away from home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 8 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Orenburg are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 24% and Rodina Moskva at 19%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Orenburg 1.84, Rodina Moskva 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (14 and 14 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Orenburg: form and key numbers
In style Orenburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 38.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 3.8 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Rodina Moskva: form and key numbers
In style Rodina Moskva are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created, 1.91 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 7% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: season averages side by side
| Orenburg | Per match this season | Rodina Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Matches | 14 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.1 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.00 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 1.91 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.0 |
| 38.1 | Possession % | 45.1 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 7% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 3.8 | Yellow cards | 2.9 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Players to watch
Orenburg
- Jordhy Thompson RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 36 · Crosser, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
- Danila Vedernikov LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 32 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 37% of his position)
Rodina Moskva
- Artem Sokol RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 32 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 37% of his position)
- Dmitriy Tananeev CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 32 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 53% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy, 28 · Orenburg · RMF · Direct wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 32
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy, 28, plays as a wide midfielder for Orenburg in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 32
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 29
- LW · Winger Natural, 25
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.27 / 90 | 72% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.63 / 90 | 67% |
| Expected goals | 0.09 / 90 | 47% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.15 / 90 | 42% |
| Key passes | 1.45 / 90 | 40% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- What Dmitriy Rybchinskiy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Dmitriy Rybchinskiy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva prediction
Rodina Moskva should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.84 for Orenburg and 0.97 for Rodina Moskva - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 53%. Orenburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Orenburg 2-1 Rodina Moskva
Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: what the numbers say
- 1. Orenburg win, the likeliest result 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 12.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 6.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Russian Premier League previews
- Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026
- Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Saturday 21 November 2026
- Akron vs Fakel Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rubin Kazan vs Zenit Saturday 21 November 2026
- CSKA Moskva vs Akhmat Grozny Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Dynamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
- Rodina Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Sunday 22 November 2026
Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: questions and answers
When is Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 10:00 UTC, in Russian Premier League Gameweek 16.
Where is Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva played?
At Stadion Gazovik, Orenburg, Orenburg's home ground.
Who will win Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
Orenburg are the favourites: Orenburg 57%, draw 24%, Rodina Moskva 19%. Our prediction is Orenburg 2-1 Rodina Moskva.
Who is the player to watch in Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy of Orenburg: a direct wide midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.