Osasuna vs Racing Santander: Prediction, Stats and Preview
La Liga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona · updated 2026-10-09
Osasuna host Racing Santander in La Liga on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estadio El Sadar. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Osasuna favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Osasuna 1.93, Racing Santander 1.40.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Ante Budimir as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 45, defensive 62).
- Duels won: 8.61 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.25 xG per shot, better than 96% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.82 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of centre-forwards
Racing Santander concede 3.0 goals a match this season (2.20 expected), more than the league's average: the space a target man like Ante Budimir lives on.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Osasuna | Per match this season | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 3.0 |
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| 1.35 | xG conceded | 2.20 |
| 9.3 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 3.9 | On target | 4.0 |
| 45.6 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.64 | Average rating | 6.65 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Osasuna
- Ante Budimir forward · rating 7.35 · 7 apps
- Aitor Fernández goalkeeper · rating 6.92 · 2 apps
- Moi Gómez midfielder · rating 6.89 · 4 apps
Racing Santander
- Yassir Zabiri forward · rating 7.27 · 7 apps
- Andrés Martín midfielder · rating 7.01 · 3 apps
- Julen Agirrezabala goalkeeper · rating 6.98 · 7 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Málaga vs Espanyol Friday 9 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Saturday 10 October 2026
- Real Betis vs Osasuna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Valencia Sunday 11 October 2026
- Levante vs Sevilla Monday 12 October 2026
- Deportivo A Coruña vs Levante Friday 16 October 2026
- Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.