Parma vs Udinese Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · updated 2026-10-14
Parma welcome Udinese to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Parma have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Udinese have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Parma 35%, the draw 27%, Udinese 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Parma 1.33, Udinese 1.39.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Parma: form and key numbers
In style Parma are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 0.75 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 8.3 a match, 2.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.8).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Parma vs Udinese: season averages side by side
| Parma | Per match this season | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 0.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 1.70 | xG conceded | 1.72 |
| 8.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 2.7 | On target | 4.2 |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Parma
- Edoardo Corvi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 56 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 18% of his position)
- Diego Carlos CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Blocks shots, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
Udinese
- Oumar Solet CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 29% of his position)
- Maduka Okoye GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 47 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 25% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mërgim Vojvoda
Mërgim Vojvoda, 31 · Udinese · RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 54
Mërgim Vojvoda, 31, plays as a full-back for Udinese in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 54
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.80 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.17 / 90 | 90% |
| Passes | 51.56 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.54 / 90 | 67% |
| Successful dribbles | 0.54 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★½ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Ball circulator.
- What Mërgim Vojvoda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mërgim Vojvoda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Parma vs Udinese prediction
Udinese should have more of the ball, with Parma likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Parma go long and direct; Udinese work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.33 for Parma and 1.39 for Udinese - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Parma 1-1 Udinese
Parma vs Udinese betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Parma vs Udinese: questions and answers
When is Parma vs Udinese?
Parma vs Udinese is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Parma vs Udinese played?
At Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Parma's home ground.
Who will win Parma vs Udinese?
It is close: Parma 35%, draw 27%, Udinese 38%. Our prediction is Parma 1-1 Udinese.
Who is the player to watch in Parma vs Udinese?
Mërgim Vojvoda of Udinese: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Udinese?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.