PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Eredivisie · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 15:45 UTC · MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle · updated 2026-11-15
PEC Zwolle welcome AZ Alkmaar to MAC³PARK Stadion in Zwolle in Eredivisie Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC.
PEC Zwolle have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 23% and PEC Zwolle at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.10, AZ Alkmaar 1.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
PEC Zwolle: form and key numbers
In style PEC Zwolle are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.98 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.5).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 41.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| PEC Zwolle | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.32 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 1.22 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 17.3 |
| 4.3 | On target | 6.2 |
| 41.7 | Possession % | 58.0 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
PEC Zwolle
- Ryan Thomas DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 38 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
- Ibrahim Cissoko LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 35 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 45% of his position)
AZ Alkmaar
- Weslley Patati RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, High shot volume (top 16% of his position)
- Ayoub Oufkir RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 27% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mexx Meerdink
Mexx Meerdink, 23 · AZ Alkmaar · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60
Mexx Meerdink, 23, plays as a centre-forward for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 60
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.26 xG/shot | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.87 / 90 | 94% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.77 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 43% | 76% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.93 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Mexx Meerdink is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mexx Meerdink's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
AZ Alkmaar should have more of the ball, with PEC Zwolle likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; PEC Zwolle are a threat in the air and from set pieces; AZ Alkmaar work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.10 for PEC Zwolle and 1.95 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 58%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar: what the numbers say
- 1. AZ Alkmaar win, the likeliest result 57% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 59% by the model, 3.05 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Eredivisie previews
- NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Saturday 21 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Excelsior Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur Saturday 21 November 2026
- Telstar vs PEC Zwolle Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Saturday 21 November 2026
- FC Twente vs Willem II Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Sunday 22 November 2026
- Ajax vs ADO Den Haag Sunday 22 November 2026
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 15:45 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 14.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle, PEC Zwolle's home ground.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: PEC Zwolle 20%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 57%. Our prediction is PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the player to watch in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Mexx Meerdink of AZ Alkmaar: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.