Philadelphia Union vs New England Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Subaru Park, Chester · updated 2026-11-14
Philadelphia Union welcome New England to Subaru Park in Chester in MLS action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC.
Philadelphia Union have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 57% win rate. New England have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 39% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Philadelphia Union are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 23% and New England at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 1.98, New England 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Philadelphia Union: form and key numbers
In style Philadelphia Union press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.06 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (71% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
New England: form and key numbers
In style New England press high.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (17% away).
- Both teams scored in 62% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Philadelphia Union vs New England: season averages side by side
| Philadelphia Union | Per match this season | New England |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 5.4 | On target | 4.8 |
| 46.9 | Possession % | 50.6 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 18% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 62% |
| 6.2 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Philadelphia Union
- Milan Iloski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 41 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 20% of his position)
- Kai Wagner LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 13% of his position)
New England
- Jack Harrison LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Matt Turner GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 39 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 24% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cavan Sullivan
Cavan Sullivan, 17 · Philadelphia Union · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 44
Cavan Sullivan, 17, plays as a wide midfielder for Philadelphia Union in the MLS. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 44
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 41
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.55 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 2.21 / 90 | 76% |
| Dispossessed | 0.88 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Cavan Sullivan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Cavan Sullivan's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Philadelphia Union vs New England prediction
New England should have more of the ball; Philadelphia Union are a threat in the air and from set pieces; New England press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.98 for Philadelphia Union and 1.27 for New England - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 63%. Philadelphia Union have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New England
Philadelphia Union vs New England: what the numbers say
- 1. Philadelphia Union unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More MLS previews
- Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake Friday 20 November 2026
- New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026
- Dallas vs Portland Timbers Saturday 21 November 2026
- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
- Vancouver Whitecaps vs TBC Monday 23 November 2026
Philadelphia Union vs New England: questions and answers
When is Philadelphia Union vs New England?
Philadelphia Union vs New England is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 21:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Philadelphia Union vs New England played?
At Subaru Park, Chester, Philadelphia Union's home ground.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New England?
Philadelphia Union are the favourites: Philadelphia Union 53%, draw 23%, New England 24%. Our prediction is Philadelphia Union 2-1 New England.
Who is the player to watch in Philadelphia Union vs New England?
Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia Union: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 44 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs New England?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.