Portland Timbers vs Dallas Prediction and Stats
MLS · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 03:30 UTC · Providence Park, Portland · updated 2026-11-15
Portland Timbers welcome Dallas to Providence Park in Portland in MLS action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 03:30 UTC.
Portland Timbers have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 69% win rate. Dallas have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 47% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 17 matches, with a 44% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Portland Timbers 40%, the draw 25%, Dallas 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.65, Dallas 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Portland Timbers: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Dallas: form and key numbers
In style Dallas are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 24% of matches (38% away).
- Both teams scored in 62% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Portland Timbers vs Dallas: season averages side by side
| Portland Timbers | Per match this season | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 1.43 | xG conceded | 1.40 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.8 |
| 50.3 | Possession % | 43.2 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 24% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 62% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Portland Timbers
- Kristoffer Velde LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 41 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 8% of his position)
- Kevin Kelsy CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 40 · Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 12% of his position)
Dallas
- Santiago Moreno RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 40 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 25% of his position)
- Sam Sarver RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 39 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Petar Musa
Petar Musa, 28 · Dallas · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52
Petar Musa, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Dallas in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 52
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 45
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.81 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.75 / 90 | 79% |
| Shots | 4.15 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Accurate shooter.
- What Petar Musa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Petar Musa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Portland Timbers vs Dallas prediction
Portland Timbers should have more of the ball, with Dallas likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Dallas go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.65 for Portland Timbers and 1.56 for Dallas - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Portland Timbers 1-1 Dallas
Portland Timbers vs Dallas: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 3 or more goals 62% by the model, 3.21 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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- Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Saturday 21 November 2026
- Nashville SC vs TBC Sunday 22 November 2026
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Sunday 22 November 2026
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Portland Timbers vs Dallas: questions and answers
When is Portland Timbers vs Dallas?
Portland Timbers vs Dallas is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 03:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Portland Timbers vs Dallas played?
At Providence Park, Portland, Portland Timbers's home ground.
Who will win Portland Timbers vs Dallas?
It is close: Portland Timbers 40%, draw 25%, Dallas 36%. Our prediction is Portland Timbers 1-1 Dallas.
Who is the player to watch in Portland Timbers vs Dallas?
Petar Musa of Dallas: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Portland Timbers vs Dallas?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.